Activity

Based on all current intelligence and analysis, the risk for violence on the ground nationwide is HIGH.

Specific threats exist for:

Washington, DC; ALL State Capitols; Seattle, WA; Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Philadelphia, PA; Atlanta, GA; Milwaukee, WI; Portland, OR

Pro-Trump “Stop the Steal” rallies are occurring in:

Washington, DC and all State Capitols

Other Activities/Assessments:

Escalation of violence could begin across the country as early as next week. This is when major movement in Trump lawsuits is expected to begin. If he WINS many of those challenges, protestors/rioters will have the impetus to begin their terror campaigns; if he loses, it is more likely the protest activities remain minimal.

A Biden presidency does not guarantee good behavior from Leftist (or any other) groups. A Biden administration has already hinted at long-term COVID plans that include another shutdown. There were already protests during the previous shutdown, and instigators have indicated they will continue if Biden shuts the country for any length of time again. Several states are already starting that process, leading to what SCOTUS Alito calls “a Constitutional stress test”. It is less likely these protests will be as destructive or violent as those typically spearheaded by Antifa/BLM factions.

A “Million MAGA March” scheduled for November 14 in Washington, DC, with corresponding rallies in every state capitol, is expected to be quite large. Leftist groups are increasingly planning counter-protests, including in black bloc. Several of these have openly called for violent confrontation. The expectation for violence at these rallies, particularly the one in the Capitol, is HIGH.

A “Stop the Tires” Trucker’s Protest in support of Trump was loosely scheduled for November 11, and/or the 24-29. Anecdotal evidence suggests that there was some stoppage on 11/11, but this does not seem to have been widescale or to have had a measurable impact. It is possible this either didn’t materialize, or that the actual stoppage has not yet occurred. Other dates suggested for the action fall between 11/24-11/29. It’s being billed as a protest where no freight will move.

Leftist factions are increasingly recruiting ex-military, particularly special forces. This could increase their level of training and preparedness for confrontation, and alter their attack methods and choices of weapons and other devices.

In response to a statement from Los Angeles police chief, indicating that police could handle a single 10,000 person riot, but that ten 1,000 person riots would overwhelm them, Leftist groups in that area (and likely nationwide) are calling for increased direct action in decentralized form. This is of particular concern to the CDF, as this will directly trigger our mission of assisting when existing safeguards are unprepared or insufficient for the task at hand. This risk is growing.

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